Category: White papers and reports

Staying current with developments in survey methods and public opinion is central to our work. This page features selected publications—including peer-reviewed articles, white papers, book chapters, and reports—that demonstrate our engagement with the broader research community and dedication to advancing best practices.

The Importance of Probability-Based Sampling Methods for Drawing Valid Inferences

 


Gary Langer authored two chapters in The Palgrave Handbook of Survey Research discussing the history of probability-based sampling in survey research and its importance in drawing valid inferences.

In the first chapter, Langer cites extensive research that finds non-probability samples, including increasingly common opt-in online panels, are less accurate and less consistent in their level of accuracy than probability sample surveys. The latter chapter expands on this research in greater detail and calls for full disclosure and honest assessment of emerging techniques, including further study of appropriate as well as inappropriate uses of convenience sample data.

Predicting State Presidential Election Results Using National Tracking Polls and Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP)

 


Our paper, published in Pubic Opinion Quarterly, presents state-level estimates of both turnout and vote preferences in the 2016 presidential election using data from the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll and multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP). The models, developed over the course of the campaign, successfully predicted the outcome in nearly all states using cumulative data from our ABC News/Washington Post polls.

The paper, co-authored by Chad P Kiewiet de Jonge, Gary Langer and Sofi Sinozich, reports how vote preferences changed over the course of the 18-day tracking period, compares subgroup-level estimates of turnout and vote preferences with the 2016 CPS Survey and National Election Pool exit poll, and summarizes the accuracy of the approach applied to the 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections. It includes discussion of how researchers can use MRP as an alternative approach to survey weighting as well as in forecasting elections.

The Hartford Consensus: A National Survey of the Public Regarding Bleeding Control

 


Americans express broad support for initiatives to train and equip first responders and the public to render first aid for bleeding control in mass casualty incidents. Large majorities also say they personally would be likely to give such aid – especially if training and supplies were available.

There are compunctions: Six in 10 or more cite the risk of causing additional pain or injury, being responsible for a bad outcome or exposure to disease as impediments to aiding trauma victims. Yet for many, the desire to help outweighs these concerns.

These results from a national survey for the Hartford Consensus are published in an article in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons, written by Lenworth M. Jacobs, MD; Karyl J. Burns, RN, Ph.D.; Gary Langer; and Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, Ph.D. Our full report for the Hartford Consensus can be viewed here.

 

Exploring Low-Income Californians’ Needs and Preferences for Behavioral Health Care

 


A statewide survey released by Blue Shield of California Foundation finds a shortfall in treatment for low-income Californians with behavioral health needs. Among those who’ve wanted to speak with a healthcare professional about their emotional health in the past year, only half have done so.

Lack of access and communication are barriers. Six in 10 say they didn’t know who to talk to. Comparatively few rate their providers highly for asking about their emotional well-being. And while three-quarters say it’s important to have access to a counselor at their place of care, just about half say one actually is available.

Produced for the Foundation by Langer Research Associates, the report is the latest in a four-year series of studies examining the healthcare experiences of low-income Californians.